Russia Auto
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Russia Autos Report Q3 2009
The economic crisis has triggered a steep fall in sales and a slump in production growth. While the salespicture is undeniably bleak this year, a swift recovery is expected from 2010 as a result of a surge indemand caused by purchase delays this year. The economic crisis has put Russian sales on a sharpdownward trajectory since late last year. A clampdown on credit has constrained lending for autos loans,while the slowing economy has caused consumers to rein in their spending. The Association of EuropeanBusinesses (AEB) has estimated that new car registrations plunged by 40% in Q109 compared with thesame period last year.Falling demand has prompted carmakers to operate on reduced capacities this year. According to theRussian Ministry for Economic Development, passenger car output declined by nearly 69% year-on-year(y-o-y) to 65,100 units over January-February. Manufacturers have resorted to production cuts in order toavoid inventory accumulation.
Automakers are finding it difficult to obtain funding from financial institutions. Russian carmakerIzhAvto confirmed in April it would close its Izhevsk Automobile Factory in western Russia indefinitely.The operator, owned by SOK Group, made losses and was hit by liquidity constraints. It is the firstcarmaker in Russia to completely close its operations due to the global economic crisis.
The Russian government has announced more than US$1bn (RUB31.1bn) in direct aid to carmakers inRussia in order to help prevent job losses. In April, Russian state-controlled bank VTB provided a loan ofRUB4bn (US$117.5mn) to AvtoVaz, the largest domestic carmaker. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin hassaid that the manufacturer may eventually receive more than RUB20bn (US$587.4mn) in state funds.Other government measures aimed at boosting sales include a hike on imports and a subsidy scheme.
The general lack of financing from banks, coupled with the overall fall in market sales, will impactproduction and sales this year and put the brakes on expansion. This is evident from Hyundai’s plan tomove slowly with its plant expansion. BMI forecasts total vehicle production growth of just 5% y-o-ycompared with 18.4% and 11.4% y-o-y in 2007 and 2008, respectively. Sales are expected to nudge up to3.82mn units this year compared with 3.61mn last year.
Over the forecast period, we remain upbeat over the prospects for Russia and see production and salesgrowth resuming. BMI believes the country is still poised to become the biggest market in Europe, but wedon’t see that happening until 2013, when GDP per capita should register at over US$18,800, up by 80%over 2007 levels. Rising income should provide a basis for healthy consumer spending and help salesreach 5.75mn units.
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This image comes from the George Grantham Bain Collection which represents one of America's earliest news picture agencies. The collection richly documents sports events, theater, celebrities, crime, strikes, disasters, political activities including the woman suffrage campaign, conventions and public celebrations. The photographs Bain produced and gathered for distribution through his news service were worldwide in their coverage, but there was a special emphasis on life in New York City. The bulk of the collection dates from the 1900s to the mid-1920s, but scattered images can be found as early as the 1860s and as late as the 1930s. (Library of Congress)
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Renault’s acquisition of a controlling stake in Russia’s largest carmaker, AvtoVAZ, will help revive thebrand, which has been struggling to compete with foreign brands on the domestic market, according to
BMI’s latest Russia Automotives Report.
The surge in Russian car sales in 2007 was spurred by a 61% rise in foreign brand cars to 1.65mn units,
with General Motors (GM) brand Chevrolet overtaking Ford Motor to become the top-selling foreign
brand in Russia during 2007. GM’s position on the Russian market is set to improve further as a result of
the planned expansion of its manufacturing base in the country. Foreign brands’ success is the result of
the Russian consumer trend towards quality and technology, over price. This is due to greater wealth,
increasingly sophisticated tastes and widespread perceptions doubting the quality of Russian brands.
AvtoVAZ, which makes Lada cars, saw sales rise by just 6.2% year-on-year (y-o-y). Although it sold a
record 663,500 cars and remained the most popular brand overall, its market share is being eroded by
foreign brands.
Given current trends, the market share of Russian carmakers is expected to fall to around 25% by 2012, or
just 1.36mn units. This would equate to a 50% rise in sales of Russian brands over 2007 levels, compared
to a 125% increase by foreign brands. However, while Russia's recent growth in car sales makes the car
market profitable for most foreign carmakers, over-capacity could post a significant threat to long-term
profitability. Trade liberalisation would even the playing field between cars manufactured in Russia and
imports, challenging the dominance of Russian-based assembly units. AvtoVAZ is targeting sales of 1.0-
1.2mn units by 2012, according to BMI research.
It is in the context of AvtoVAZ’s declining market share and the failure of state arms dealer
Rosoboronexport to turn the company around following its take over of the carmaker in late 2005, that
Renault has thrown the company a lifeline. Renault is aiming to complete its take-over of a 25% stake in
AvtoVAZ by mid-2008, with company sources valuing the bid at US$1.3bn. AvtoVAZ’s take-over by
Renault will inevitably lead to a deal on assembling Logan and Mégane models. The French carmaker
plans to invest US$900mn in modernising AvtoVAZ’s operations, with production increasing from 1mn
to 1.5mn units with vehicles produced under Renault and Nissan brands. The first victim of the agreement
is likely to be Canada’s Magna, which had planned to build an assembly plant with an initial capacity of
220,000 low cost cars per annum. Another victim of the deal would be GM’s tie-up with AvtoVAZ.
Russia scored 68.8 (out of a theoretical maximum of 100) in the BMI automotive business environment
rating, putting it 12.6 points ahead of the Czech Republic. This market's stronger areas include its market
size and its strengths in production. Areas of particular weakness are the competitive and regulatory
environments and the country’s overall economic structure. Russia has great potential for increased
vehicle ownership, with a credit boom helping to raise car purchases over the forecast period. BMI
research shows that those foreign manufacturers with a local production presence have reported better
sales than those that do not. Our forecasts are in line with government expectations, with output at
2.93mn units in 2010 and 3.80mn units by 2012. By 2012, output should be more than double the level
achieved in 2007, but this will still not be enough to satisfy domestic demand.
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